INTAGE Co., Ltd. uses its retail store panel service to analyze the impact of the new coronavirus infection on the market. We have announced trends in sales in the “food market,” “miscellaneous goods market,” and “cosmetics market” from the end of February to the end of July during the coronavirus pandemic, as well as demand forecasts for fall and winter.
Demand forecast during the coronavirus pandemic: Which consumer goods are likely to continue to be affected in the fall/winter of 2020? (Intage Co., Ltd.)
Analyzing the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the market over three periods
The survey divided the impact of the new coronavirus infection on each market into the following three periods.
① 2/24th week – 3/30th week: School closure – before state of emergency declared ② 4/6th week – 5/18th week: During state of emergency ③ 6/1st week – 7/27th week: After state of emergency is lifted
About the impact on the food market
Regarding demand trends during the coronavirus pandemic in the food market, this study focused on the sales forecast and actual sales amount for “noodles” and “flour products.”
Regarding noodles, all items exceeded expectations immediately after school closures, and continued to increase during the state of emergency. After the state of emergency was lifted, there were differences in the rate of increase depending on the type of noodles. This indicates that demand for cup instant noodles and dried noodles, which meet the need to stockpile ingredients, has been on a steady decline. On the other hand, the number of flour products other than tempura flour continues to increase, perhaps because people continue to enjoy a stay-at-home diet even after the state of emergency was declared.
Demand forecast during the coronavirus pandemic: Which consumer goods are likely to continue to be affected in the fall/winter of 2020? (Intage Co., Ltd.)
About the impact on the miscellaneous goods market
Similarly, we focused on the sales forecast and actual sales amount for “laundry supplies” and “kitchenware”.
Sales of laundry products exceeded expectations immediately after school closures, but as a result of this, sales have declined during the state of emergency. Among them, only bleach has attracted attention for its sterilizing effect, and although the number was on the rise during the state of emergency, it has returned to normal after the state of emergency was declared.
On the other hand, sales of kitchen detergents continue to exceed expectations due to the trend of people staying at home and eating at home more frequently.
Demand forecast during the coronavirus pandemic: Which consumer goods are likely to continue to be affected in the fall/winter of 2020? (Intage Co., Ltd.)
About the impact on the cosmetics market
In the cosmetics market, we focused on the sales forecast and actual sales amount for “skin care” and “makeup.”
The cosmetics market continued to fall significantly below forecasts due in part to the decline in inbound demand, but it is said to be on a recovery trend after the state of emergency was lifted.
Skincare-related items are showing a recovery trend in some items, probably due to more people going out after the state of emergency was lifted.
Furthermore, although sales of makeup-related items vary greatly depending on the item, some items are also showing signs of recovery after the state of emergency was lifted.
Demand forecast during the coronavirus pandemic: Which consumer goods are likely to continue to be affected in the fall/winter of 2020? (Intage Co., Ltd.)
About the 2020 fall/winter market demand forecast
The survey provides demand forecasts for the next several months, assuming that there are no major changes in the spread of the new coronavirus infection.
Demand forecast during the coronavirus pandemic: Which consumer goods are likely to continue to be affected in the fall/winter of 2020? (Intage Co., Ltd.)
In the food market, we are focusing on noodles. Bag instant noodles and macaroni products are currently doing well, but if life with the coronavirus continues, we predict that demand will return to normal in the fall and winter.
In addition, in the cosmetics market, we are focusing on “skin care.” The analysis shows that various items that are currently in a depressed state will gradually recover, but the situation will not recover to the state that was seen last year when there was special demand from inbound tourists.
Demand forecast during the coronavirus pandemic: Which consumer goods are likely to continue to be affected in the fall/winter of 2020? (Intage Co., Ltd.)