The Hakuhodo Lifestyle Research Institute, a think tank of Hakuhodo Inc., is conducting a survey of 1,500 men and women between the ages of 20 and 69 to find out their consumption forecasts for the next month. According to “Next month’s consumption forecast for September” (surveyed from August 3 to 6, 2020) announced on August 26, 2020, due to the spread of the new coronavirus infection, Consumer confidence continues to decline.
Reference source: Hakuhodo Institute of Living and Living [Next month’s consumption forecast/September] (Consumer confidence index)
The Consumer Confidence Index in September decreased both from the previous month and from the same month last year.
In the “Next Month’s Consumption Forecast” survey, “If 100 is the highest level of consumer desire (desire to buy goods, use services), what is your consumer desire for next month? The responses from those surveyed to the question “Is it true?” are published as the “Consumer Confidence Index.” The consumer confidence index in September 2020 was 46.7 points. It showed a decrease of 2.8 points compared to the previous month and -3.0 points compared to the same month last year.
As for the reasons for the consumer confidence index (free answers), among positive responses to consumption, “I want to go out and shop in reaction to self-restraint/I want to spend what I had been holding back” increased from 54 in August to 27 in September. Among the respondents, the number of respondents who said they had financial leeway due to bonuses and benefits decreased from 57 in August to 11 in September. Regarding negative responses to consumption, the number of respondents who said, “I don’t want to go out/I don’t have the desire to go out because I’m scared of the coronavirus” increased from 77 in August to 100 in September, and the number of respondents who said, “I can’t go out or shop because of the coronavirus” increased to 127 in August. The number of cases has increased from September to 167 cases.
Predicting a decline in consumption categories related to “going out”
In the same survey, the answers to the question “Is there anything you particularly want to buy or use next month?” were announced as “consumption intentions by category.”
The percentage of people who answered, “There are things I particularly want to buy or services I want to use” was 22.1% of the total, down 3.8 points from the previous month and down 5.0 points from the previous year. Like the “Consumer Confidence Index,” it has decreased both month-on-month and year-on-year.
Additionally, for those who answered, “There are things I want to buy or services I want to use,” I was asked, “What are the things you particularly want to buy or services you want to use?” Answers are shown by category. Of these, the number of responses (number of people) decreased by 20 or more in 9 out of 16 categories.
According to a report by Hakuhodo Lifestyle Research Institute, this year’s characteristic is that categories related to going out, such as “eating out,” “leisure,” “travel,” and “fashion,” are decreasing, and even in September, which is Silver Week, “going out” is decreasing. It is predicted that the desire to spend will remain sluggish.
Reference source: Hakuhodo Institute of Living and Living [Next month’s consumption forecast/September] (Consumer confidence index)