There was a report that “advertisements hanging on trains have disappeared due to people refraining from going out,” but it seems that promotional methods need to change with the times.
In this article, we will analyze concrete examples and explain as clearly as possible about “behavioral trend analysis”, which is a method for understanding society and people’s movements and implementing effective promotions.
What is behavioral trend analysis?
The sales status of products is dependent on the season (period).
Behavioral trend analysis is a method that focuses on the seasonal dependence of product sales and further analyzes what kind of purchasing group creates the seasonal characteristics (overall trends). Purchasing groups can be categorized based on various factors, including age and gender.
If you can do this kind of analysis, you will be able to effectively distribute advertisements to specific purchasing groups at specific times.
However, even though we say “season”, the span can be long or short, and the combinations of “purchaser classification axes” are diverse, so finding useful rules requires a variety of perspectives. .
“When can you buy low-malt beer?”
Let’s consider a case where a national liquor store chain wants to analyze behavioral trends regarding sales of happoshu.
First, take a look at the diagram below. This is the sales trend of Happoshu A for one year at a certain liquor store chain.
*Created in-house
First, from this graph you can see a trend that depends on monthly average temperature, with a peak in August.
Next, we analyze which purchasing demographics are shaping this trend.
When analyzed using the axes of age (10-year range) and gender, we found that men in their 20s to 40s accounted for more than 70% of sales throughout the year, forming the overall trend. Ta.
Based on these results, we can make a plan to focus on delivering ads to men in their 20s to 40s over a 2-3 month period starting around June, when it gets hotter.
At least this is a legitimate policy that meets the requirements of behavioral trend analysis.
However, I feel that dividing it by month is too coarse-grained, so if you dig deeper into “when” advertising becomes more effective, you might be able to come up with a better strategy.
So let’s say you searched for and obtained data that was granular, not on a monthly basis, but on what time of day the products were sold.
*Created in-house
Based on detailed data, when we graphed the cumulative sales for the year hourly, we could see a clear seasonal pattern compared to monthly aggregations.
In this way, even the same data can reveal multiple seasonal characteristics depending on how you look at it.
When we set the purchasing group classification axis the same as last time, we found that men in their 20s to 40s accounted for more than half of sales in all time periods.
Based on these two analysis results, it seems possible to create an updated strategy to send advertisements to men in their 20s to 40s for several hours starting around 5:00 pm, especially during hot seasons.
It’s an efficient strategy to run lots of ads at specific times, rather than running ads all day long.
“Seasons” and “purchaser classification axes” vary widely.
This is just an example, but I hope you can get a sense that there are many lengths and shorts to a “season,” and that there is also room for consideration of the “classification axis of purchasing groups.”
For reference, here are some possible examples.
Season: yearly, day of the week, minute Purchase classification axis: age (1 year range), region of residence, whether purchasing from an EC site or not, married or unmarried
How to use it in BtoB marketing
Now, let’s take a quick look at what happens when this method is applied to BtoB marketing.
For example, assume that S is a trading company that purchases semiconductors from overseas.
Looking at the data, it appears that the overall trend in semiconductor sales peaks in the spring.
There are a total of 10 companies with which S deals with semiconductors, and 3 of them mainly deal with PCs.
After analyzing the purchasing demographics, we found that these three companies are creating trends, leading us to speculate that semiconductors for PCs will be needed at the beginning of a new life.
Thinking about the season is the same as in BtoC, but in BtoB, the classification of purchasing groups is based on the type of company.
An example of classification is shown below.
Corporate classification axis: industry, management status, management policy, company size
However, in reality, I think that even if you try to use behavioral trend analysis in BtoB marketing, it often does not go well.
Originally, many BtoB products and services were targeted at specific industries and companies, so there was no need to go out of your way to categorize and clarify purchasing groups, there were few so-called standard products, and sales were cyclical (trends). It may be difficult to derive general rules.
However, behavioral trend analysis is a tool for thinking about when and to whom promotional activities are most effective, so whether it’s BtoC or BtoB, the analysis itself is important.
How to demonstrate the true value of marketing methods
He emphasized that “people buying things” is related to various factors, so when conducting behavioral trend analysis, it is necessary to infer detailed human psychology and devise various approaches. I’ll keep it.
When using marketing methods, not just behavioral trend analysis, please remember that unless you also consider human psychology, their true value will not be fully realized.
summary
◆ Behavioral trend analysis is a method that captures the seasonal nature of sales and analyzes the type of purchasing group that makes them.
◆ Behavioral trend analysis enables time- and target-targeted sales promotion activities.
◆There are a wide variety of “seasons” and “purchaser classification axes”
◆Imagination is important to demonstrate the true value of marketing methods