“Singularity” refers to a “technological singularity,” and is used to refer to a turning point where artificial intelligence surpasses human intelligence.
In recent years, AI has been actively used in various fields. There are many benefits to our lives and work when used effectively, but I am worried about the impact that AI will have on the world as it develops significantly and surpasses us humans. There is also a side.
In this article, we will provide an overview of the singularity, the factors that are thought to cause it to occur, the impact of its occurrence, and points to consider when using AI.
What is Singularity?
If you are familiar with the web or AI, many people may have heard of the word “singularity,” but some may think, “I vaguely know the word, but it’s difficult to explain.” There will be. First, I will explain the meaning and overview of singularity.
The tipping point where AI surpasses human intelligence
The term singularity is used to refer to the tipping point where AI intelligence exceeds that of humans. This term has been used among researchers since the 1980s.
The spread of technology brings great convenience to our lives, but as technology changes rapidly, it is possible that AI will catch up with the sophistication and flexibility of humans, and eventually surpass human intelligence. It is assumed that this is the case. When the singularity arrives, it is assumed that AI itself will create even more sophisticated AI, and it is thought that AI at this stage will have developed intelligence to a level comparable to that of humans. It is.
There are two types of AI: “Specialized AI” that specializes in specific issues and tasks, and “General-purpose AI” that can handle a variety of issues and tasks without limiting the field, but the mechanism by which singularity occurs One of these is advances in artificial general intelligence. Although it is still in the development stage at the moment, it is thought that there is a high possibility that the singularity will occur if more advanced development allows for advanced thinking, learning, and behavior.
Happens around 2045
There are various debates about the timing of the singularity, but the most popular theory is that it will occur around 2045. This was advocated by Ray Kurzweil, a world authority on AI research. He announced that by 2029, technology will develop to the point where AI will have human-like intelligence, and by 2045, a computer costing about 100,000 yen will have 10 billion times the computing power of a human brain.
Factors thought to cause the singularity
The aforementioned theory predicts that the singularity will occur in 2045, but this is based on the following two factors.
moore’s law
Moore’s Law was proposed by Gordon Moore, the founder of Intel, in his own paper in 1965, and is a law in the semiconductor industry that states that “semiconductor integrated circuit performance doubles every 18 months.” is.
This was supposed to represent a long-term indicator for producing large-scale integrated circuits. However, assuming this is correct, we can assume that the processing power of semiconductors will continue to increase exponentially, and that we will soon see an era in which artificial intelligence will overwhelm human capabilities.
Integrated circuits, the brains of computers, have evolved every two years or so, doubling their performance each time. If development continues at the same pace, it is not surprising that something with processing power that exceeds human intelligence will be created by around 2045.
Law of accelerating returns
The law of accelerating returns is a law that states that the development of a certain technology does not improve linearly, but rather that it improves exponentially by connecting with the development and invention of other technologies. This law was proposed by Ray Kurzweil by applying Moore’s law.
When a new technology is invented, that technology is used for the next invention, so it is thought that the time between technological innovations will become shorter and shorter. In other words, the speed at which new technologies are created increases by improving and combining existing technologies.
The Web is a familiar example of this law. When the Internet was first introduced, most things used telephone lines, which meant communication speeds were slow and not very user-friendly.
However, later on, with the birth of various lines such as optical lines, communication speeds became faster, and the devices used became cheaper, resulting in the explosive spread of the Internet. Furthermore, with the advent of faster internet speeds and new wireless systems such as 5G, the communication environment has become surprisingly comfortable.
The technology that first created the Internet is being used for the next development, and technology is progressing at a rapid pace, adding more and more useful functions.
If technology continues to develop exponentially, computers will surpass the human brain by 2045.
Technologies you need to know to understand AI
Some theories say that the singularity will arrive soon, but there are many different types of AI. From here, I will explain three technologies you need to know to understand AI.
deep learning
Deep learning is one of the machine learning technologies in AI technology. A technology in which a computer automatically analyzes large amounts of data and extracts the characteristics of the data.
In general data analysis, the relationship between input data and output data is directly analyzed, but deep learning creates a structure called an intermediate layer, and by layering these layers, the rules and patterns behind the data are analyzed. You can think about it. As long as the data necessary for learning is prepared, the features necessary for learning can be extracted by itself, making it possible to perform high-performance recognition that was not possible with machine learning, which required humans to provide features.
machine learning
Machine learning is a data analysis technology that allows a computer to read large amounts of data and learn the patterns hidden within the data, thereby acquiring rules for making judgments about unknown data. This is the core technology of AI currently in use.
Machine learning has been around since the 1960s during the first AI boom, but it took some time to process large amounts of learning data and reach a stage where it could be put to practical use. Since the 2000s, the performance of computers has improved, and since the 2010s, when big data has been handled, huge computational resources have been acquired, which has led to its practical application.
neural network
A neural network is a mathematical model that mimics the neural circuits of the human brain. An adaptive system that uses interconnected neurons in a structure similar to the human brain to learn, and is derived from the word “neuron.”
The behavior of a neural network is defined by how its individual elements are connected and the strength or weight of those connections. It consists of an input layer that inputs data, an output layer that outputs data, and a hidden layer that processes the weights flowing from the input layer.
The ease with which information is transmitted within the brain varies depending on the strength of the synaptic connections between neurons. In neural networks, this strength is called “weight,” and in order to obtain correct output results, it is important to optimize the weight for the input data.
Neural networks can learn from data. Therefore, it is possible to perform pattern recognition, data classification, and learn to predict what will happen in the future. Just like the human brain, by training it using many examples, it can also recognize patterns in sounds and images.
Impact of singularity
The 2045 problem regarding the arrival of the Singularity is gradually becoming known to the general public, and when it arrives, it is expected to have various effects on humanity. From here, we will explain the effects of the singularity.
Job replacement by AI
Once the Singularity occurs, it is expected that more and more tasks will become automated as the level of technology increases. Some jobs may even be replaced by artificial intelligence. There is a possibility that jobs that have traditionally been performed by humans will be replaced by AI, leading to unmanned work and labor savings.
The development of AI is expected to bring various benefits. However, there is a high possibility that jobs that require simple tasks or simple decisions will be replaced by AI, and there are concerns that this will cause unemployment for those involved in such jobs. However, not all jobs will be replaced. For example, jobs that require human imagination and originality are unlikely to be taken over by AI.
new jobs are created
The development of AI is also expected to create new jobs. For example, jobs that involve analyzing and managing large amounts of data collected by AI, as well as consultant jobs that provide advice on how AI tools can be used to solve corporate issues, are emerging, and demand is increasing. There is a possibility that
Up until now, new jobs have often been created due to technological developments and changes in the times. For example, various jobs have been created such as VTuber, YouTuber, drone pilot, food delivery, etc. With the development of AI, more and more jobs will be created in the future.
Artificialization of parts of the human body
The development of AI is expected to have a major impact on the medical field. If we can use advanced AI to elucidate the mechanisms and functions of the human brain and organs, we should be able to realize even more advanced technologies. It may become possible to replace the brain and organs with artificial materials, or to connect the brain to the Internet.
You may wonder if such a world is really coming, but microchips are already being implanted in the hands, and new prosthetic technology that uses brain waves has already been put into practical use. If it becomes possible to replace bodily functions or expand the body, the way we deal with our health will change dramatically. Not only that, but if it becomes possible to overcome diseases that are currently considered difficult to treat, it may become possible to extend healthy lifespans.
Changes in social systems
When the singularity arrives and the number of jobs performed by AI increases, it is likely that many people will lose their jobs. This may create income disparities and widen poverty disparities. Against this background, it is thought that changes will appear in social systems and that the introduction of basic income will progress.
Simply put, basic income is a system that provides a fixed income to all citizens without conditions. All people can receive a fixed amount of money from the government on a regular and continuous basis, regardless of gender, age, income level, etc.
The introduction of basic income brings the following benefits:
However, there are some concerns about the introduction of basic income. First, it is difficult to secure financial resources. Achieving basic income requires securing enormous financial resources.
For example, if we were to pay each citizen 70,000 yen a month, we would need to secure financial resources worth approximately 100 trillion yen annually. This amount is on the same scale as the annual national budget, so securing the financial resources to realize basic income is the biggest hurdle. Even if we forcefully introduce a system and give money to the people, there is a possibility that taxes will be increased and the national pension system will be abolished afterwards, and the burden of this will fall on the people.
Jobs that will disappear, jobs that will remain, and new jobs that will be created
Due to the Singularity, the forms of work and employment that humans have done so far may change dramatically. From here, we will explain the jobs that will be performed by AI, eliminating the need for human hands, the jobs that only humans can do, and the jobs that will be created by the development of AI.
Jobs that can be done with AI
Examples of tasks that can be performed by AI and do not require human intervention include the following:
There is a high possibility that jobs that can be patterned or simple jobs will be replaced by AI, and there are said to be more than 100 types of jobs.
work that humans should do
The following are specific tasks that humans should perform that AI cannot do.
Work that requires close interaction with people or work that requires creativity is currently difficult for AI to perform, so it is considered that work that should continue to be done by humans. In addition, there are many jobs where AI is used only to improve the efficiency of some operations, and the tasks are ultimately completed by humans.
new jobs created
Specifically, the new jobs that will be created by the development of AI are as follows.
As mentioned above, new jobs are often created due to technological developments and changes in the times. In addition to the jobs mentioned above, many more jobs will be created due to the development of AI.
4 ways to utilize AI
AI is expected to continue to develop in the future, but what we humans will need to do is acquire the ability to utilize it and make full use of it. From here, we will explain how to utilize AI.
natural language processing
Natural language processing is a technology that uses computers to analyze and process words that humans speak on a daily basis. There are two types of natural language processing technology: “language understanding,” which processes words spoken or written by people, and “language generation,” which allows computers to generate sentences. It’s a very advanced technology.
By utilizing AI, it becomes possible to understand and process the meaning and content of statistical words by learning linguistic data through deep learning. This allows computers to perform a variety of language-related tasks, such as answering questions, summarizing texts, translating, and programming software.
image recognition
Image recognition is a technology that recognizes people and things in images. By looking at images with their own eyes, humans can use their own knowledge to determine what is shown there. However, since computers do not have the accumulated experience of “their own knowledge” like humans, they are unable to distinguish between objects in images. However, using AI, it is possible to learn the characteristics of objects from large amounts of image data, and it becomes possible to identify images based on that data.
Image recognition technology is already being used in many fields. For example, in the field of crime prevention, it is used to identify people captured on security cameras, and in the field of communications, it is used in facial recognition systems for smartphones and PCs.
voice recognition
Speech recognition is a technology that analyzes human words, voices, and conversations, converts them into text data, and outputs them. Humans can naturally understand the meaning of sounds they hear, but this is not easy for computers. However, by using AI, it is possible to learn from a large amount of voice data, select the voice data that meets the conditions from the accumulated voice data, and output the voice recognition results.
Speech recognition technology is already being used in many fields. For example, it is used in the “voice input” function of smartphones, AI assistants such as Amazon’s Alexa, translation apps, etc.
data analysis
AI is good at processing and analyzing large amounts of data, and high-speed calculations, so it is extremely good at data analysis functions. Even with vast amounts of data that is difficult for humans to understand in its entirety, it is possible to analyze patterns and trends using AI’s machine learning. The big data analysis results and predictions obtained in this way will be useful in a variety of ways, including corporate
marketing strategies
, market research, and future outlook confirmation.
Points to effectively utilize AI
AI can be used in many situations, but in order to use it effectively, you need to keep a few points in mind. Please mainly keep the following points in mind.
Be clear about the purpose of using AI
First, let’s clarify the purpose of using AI. When introducing AI in business, the introduction must not become an end in itself. It is not just that AI will be effective just by introducing it, but it is very important to introduce it in the appropriate form for your company’s goals and problems you want to solve.
It can be said that there is a point in introducing AI only when the problem is solved or the desired benefit is obtained. Before introducing AI, first clarify your goals and the issues you want to solve, then consider AI.
We will make improvements while actually using it.
After introducing it, make improvements while actually using it. It is important to always verify the situation after implementation and make improvements if necessary.
Even if you go to great lengths to introduce something, if it doesn’t seem to be very effective or doesn’t solve the problems you’re facing, there’s no point in introducing it. If you are incurring costs, there is a risk that those costs will be wasted. It is necessary to measure the effectiveness of the implementation to see if it is being implemented in line with the objectives, and if the expected results are not achieved, it is necessary to make improvements or review the implementation.
Combine your abilities with the AI’s abilities
AI does not automatically become effective when introduced. Please be aware that some operations may require human assistance or operation. It is necessary for humans to take a supervisory role by using their own abilities and those of the AI in combination, so that they can use the AI effectively. This will allow you to maximize the effectiveness of AI.
make efforts to improve one’s abilities and skills
When the singularity occurs, there is a high possibility that simple tasks or jobs that require simple judgment will be replaced by AI. However, not all jobs will be taken away, and there are jobs that only humans can do. Make efforts to improve your abilities and skills so that you can respond to changes in the times.
For example, jobs that require creativity, such as those of creators, can only be performed by humans. AI is good at analyzing accumulated data and providing answers, but it cannot respond flexibly to things that have not been accumulated. Only humans have the creativity to create new things and the flexibility to use their minds effectively, and these skills will continue to be in demand in the future.
summary
In this article, we have provided an overview of the singularity, the factors that are thought to cause it, the effects of the singularity, and points to consider when using AI.
When the singularity occurs, which is a turning point where artificial intelligence (AI) surpasses human intelligence, the form of work and employment that humans have done up until now may change dramatically.
Since it has not yet occurred, it is difficult to predict how technology will develop in the future, but it is important to be prepared to respond even if it occurs.
Let’s understand the power that only humans have and actively adapt to the changing times.