Let's take a look at Oda Nobunaga's choices and judgments from a marketing perspective [Learning about marketing from history's great figures, Part 1]

A solid strategy is essential for corporate marketing success. Especially in the rapidly changing “VUCA era,” the need for this becomes even greater. Hints on how to plan a strategy for survival may be hidden in the great figures of history who survived the extremely chaotic Sengoku period and the end of the Edo period.

In this series, Kenji Morioka, a small business consultant and author of “Success and Failure of Sengoku Warlords Using SWOT Analysis,” focuses on the strategies of Sengoku warlords and great figures of history and explains them in detail. The theme for the first edition is Nobunaga Oda, a man known for his innovation and boldness that continues to fascinate many businesspeople.

Using a modern framework, we explore the mystery of why Oda Nobunaga was able to gain a foothold in unifying the country. It is very useful as an introduction to analysis using frameworks, and the content is easy to understand even for marketing beginners. Please read it!

Marketing framework and learning from the past

Do you know the term “chishin from the past”?

The meaning of this four-character idiom that appears in the Analects is “to study the past and discover new knowledge and principles from it.”

To summarize briefly, it means “learning from the wisdom of our predecessors.” Maybe it’s because I’m a history buff, but I love this idiom and it’s always somewhere in my head.

In recent years, it has been said that we are living in an era of high uncertainty, where past successes and common sense no longer apply.

With the development of digital technology, the advantage of corporate scale is diminishing. In addition, due to the spread of devices such as smartphones and the increase in the power of social media such as SNS, not only goods but also information are overflowing, and customer needs are diversifying.

As a result, even companies with a strong tradition and track record are under pressure to survive through innovation and business restructuring.

There were similar times in the past. The Sengoku period was a time when the authority of the shogunate and the imperial court declined, new knowledge and technology flowed in from abroad, emerging local powers gained influence, and common people came to have power due to the development of the monetary economy.

Everyone was forced to adapt to a rapidly changing environment, and those who could not adapt to new rules and technology were brutally forced out.

On the other hand, there are many people who have succeeded in preserving their family names to this day, even though they have been forced to make decisions and decisions that will determine their fate many times.

The judgments and choices made by our predecessors can be very helpful in the survival strategies of modern companies and organizations, just like the words “Know the past and learn from the past.”

This time I would like to focus on Oda Nobunaga, who laid the foundation for the unification of Japan.

Nobunaga made many choices and judgments, and even though he found himself in difficult situations many times, he continued his efforts to unify the country.

Among them, there are choices and judgments that become major turning points. This was the Kyoto plan for the restoration of the shogunate.

I would like to take a look at the Oda family from this time by applying it to a modern marketing framework.

What is a framework? Explaining the framework for organizing your thoughts and advancing your business by usage scenario

Nobunaga’s choices and judgments regarding the risky plan to go to Kyoto

Generally speaking, Oda Nobunaga was born into a blessed family that controlled the Owari area of present-day Aichi Prefecture, and was able to use that power as a foothold to come close to unifying the country. That seems to be the case.

In reality, we didn’t start from such an advantageous position. Nobunaga’s family was one of the three Seishu magistrates under the Shugodai. His family’s status is not high, and he is unknown nationwide.

It is said that during the time of his father, Nobuhide Oda, he controlled half of Owari, and Nobunaga succeeded him.

However, it is said that Nobunaga actually inherited only about a quarter of the company. From here, he will work to unify the country.

In addition, many of the powerful vassals were attached to his younger brothers, so Nobunaga built up a group of vassals on his own. Although it was later said that the appointment of personnel was based on merit, in reality it seems that there was also an aspect of the appointment being made out of necessity.

On the other hand, being able to inherit Tsushima Minato, a commercial area, was a big help, and it helped our later activities.

In 1560, they defeated Yoshimoto Imagawa at Okehazama, and five years later they finally achieved the unification of Owari. It seems that there was considerable opposition to Nobunaga, who was also a rising power, and it took 13 years from the time he succeeded to the family headship.

Raising the reputation of the Oda family was an important issue in terms of stable governance and expansion of power.

At this time, he received a request from Yoshiaki Ashikaga, a candidate for shogun, to cooperate with the Kyoto plan.

For the Oda family, there were concerns about the governance of Owari, and the risks were quite high, such as the lack of domestic troops and the high military costs for expeditions. If it fails, the damage will be considerable.

However, if you are successful, your reputation will increase and your influence both at home and abroad will increase. It also increases the possibility that the government of Owari and other areas will be officially recognized by the Shogunate and the Imperial Court.

In the end, this plan to go to Kyoto was a major turning point for Nobunaga. How did Nobunaga make his choices and decisions?

I would like to apply PEST analysis, 3C analysis, and SWOT analysis, which are often used in marketing, to the situation of the Oda family at this time, and try to imagine a part of Nobunaga’s thinking.

Oda family PEST analysis

PEST analysis is often used to understand a company’s external environment when formulating marketing strategies.

We will analyze from four perspectives: “Politics,” “Economy,” “Society,” and “Technology.”

Let’s apply this to the environment in which the Oda family was located around 1568.

1) Politics:

① Yoshiteru Ashikaga, the 13th shogun, was assassinated, and the authority of the shogunate and shoguns declined. ② Yoshihide Ashikaga, an affiliate of the Miyoshi family, became the 14th shogun. ③ Local feudal lords, temples and shrines, and commercial cities began to develop their own military and economic power. Expand your voice

2) Economy:

① Improving agricultural productivity and penetration of the commodity economy and monetary economy ② Development of logistics and rise in local economic power ③ Increased trade with overseas

3) Society:

① Those with ability acquired real power in each region ② Advanced culture such as renga and tea ceremony spread to the general public ③ The Ikko sect rapidly spread and gained many followers ④ Contact with foreign countries increased and missionaries appeared

4) Technology:

① Civil engineering technology and agricultural technology such as castle building and irrigation improved. ② Technology related to navigation and shipbuilding improved for trade with overseas. ③ Metal processing technology such as Japanese swords, guns, and cannons improved.

Looking at the external environment surrounding the Oda family around 1568, notable points include the destabilization of the central government, the development of new technology, and the spread of meritocracy.

In particular, as the class that had been considered commoners came to have power, Kaga Province expelled the Togashi family, the shugo, and established self-governance by the common people. We can see a transition from the old order to a new order.

I think the situation is a mixture of new technology and knowledge and existing values.

Oda family 3C analysis

Unlike PEST analysis, 3C analysis is often used to understand a company’s internal environment, such as market trends and customer needs, as well as the strengths of the company and its competitors.

We will analyze from three perspectives: “Customer”, “Company”, and “Competitor”.

Let’s apply this to the situation of the Oda family in 1568.

1) Customer (market/customer):

① The population has increased significantly since the Kamakura period. ② Farmers, merchants, temples and shrines also need arms due to the deterioration of security. ③ They need an entity like the shogunate to protect and guarantee them. We are not asking for excessive intervention or heavy burdens.

2) Company:

① Has Owari under its control ② Owns commercial areas such as Tsushima and Atsuta ③ Does not have a high status due to being a vassal of the Shugodai ④ Has very few Fudai vassals ⑤ Surrounding countries such as the Asai family, the Tokugawa family, and the Takeda family He has a kinship relationship with.

3) Competitor:

a) Asakura family:

① Echizen Province shugodai ② Has Yoshiaki but is reluctant to go to Kyoto ③ Relatively close to Kyoto but heavy snowfall area ④ Prioritizes stability of own country

b) Takeda family:

① Prestigious Seiwa-Genji clan and protector of Kai Province ② Geographically far from Kyoto ③ Unrest in the Kososhun Tripartite Alliance ④ Territorial ambitions for Imagawa territory

c) Miyoshi family:

① Shugodai of Awa Province ② Has power in Awa and Kinai ③ Assassinate the 13th shogun and support the 14th shogun ④ Internal conflict intensifies due to Nagayoshi’s death

d) Imagawa family:

① Guardian of Suruga Province by the Ashikaga branch ② Geographically far from Kyoto ③ Unrest in the Kososhun Triple Alliance ④ Domestic chaos due to Yoshimoto’s death

Since the Oda family is not a pure corporate entity, we consider our customers to be stakeholders rather than customers, and we are targeting farmers, merchants, temples and shrines, and local feudal lords.

As the consumer market expands due to population growth, conflicts increase as each person seeks to establish an order that is convenient for them.

Although the Oda family unified Owari and became wealthy, there were concerns that it still lacked tradition and authority because it had rapidly grown in size during Nobunaga’s reign. Therefore, relationships with neighboring countries require careful consideration.

However, the competing Takeda and Asakura families had their own problems and agendas, and were reluctant to go to Kyoto or go on an expedition for Yoshiaki.

Nobunaga’s direct competition was the Miyoshi family, which included the 14th Shogun Yoshihide Ashikaga. However, Yoshihide was inferior to Yoshiaki in terms of legitimacy in succeeding the shogunate. In addition, the Miyoshi family was no longer monolithic, with competition for leadership intensifying.

SWOT analysis of the Oda family

SWOT analysis is often used to identify the good and bad aspects of an organization’s internal and external environments, understand the current situation, and consider future measures.

We analyze from four perspectives: “Strength,” “Weakness,” “Opportunity,” and “Threat.”

It is said that accuracy can be increased by using the results of the PEST analysis and 3C analysis mentioned above.

1) Strength:

① Ruled over Owari and Mino, geographically close to Kyoto ② Owned commercial areas such as Tsushima and Atsuta ③ Relative relationships with Azai, Tokugawa, Takeda, etc. ④ For vassals, ability was more important than family status

2) Weakness:

① He has a weak national voice due to his origins as a branch of the Shugodai ② Weak legitimacy of governance within the territory ③ There are few Fudai vassals from the generation of his ancestors ④ Existence of Ikko sect followers in the surrounding area

3) Opportunity:

① Reconstruction of the shogunate is required to maintain order ② Request for support from Yoshiaki, a direct descendant of Ashikaga ③ Monetary economy and commodity economy becoming active ④ Development of technology such as guns and shipbuilding ⑤ Chaos due to internal conflict within the Miyoshi family

4) Threat:

① The existence of the 14th Shogun Yoshihide ② Arming of farmers and merchants due to the deterioration of security ③ Financial power and military power of temples and shrines ④ Fluid intentions and relationships of various lords ⑤ Influx of new technology and ideas from overseas

If the military power and financial strength of the Oda family were combined with the authority of Yoshiaki, a candidate for shogun, it is thought that the plan to move to Kyoto would have a high chance of success. This is an SO strategy that combines strengths and opportunities in a cross-SWOT analysis.

Also, by putting up a candidate for shogun, you can compensate for the weaknesses in the Oda family’s status. In addition, you can also obtain the effect of checking and suppressing other forces that pose a threat.

When applied to this framework, the Kyoto plan makes sense as a strategy. It is understandable that Nobunaga decided to go to Kyoto even if it meant taking a risk.

The success of the Kyoto plan and its aftermath

Nobunaga’s plan to go to Kyoto is initially successful. In reality, Yoshiaki’s authority alone did not work, and there were some unexpected circumstances such as opposition from the Rokkaku family.

However, the synergy between the military and financial strength of the Oda family and Yoshiaki’s authority was strong, and the shogunate was successfully restored more smoothly than expected.

The Oda family was praised for their contributions to the restoration of the shogunate, and the legitimacy of their governance of territories such as Owari was recognized.

In addition, they received control of commercial areas such as Kusatsu and Sakai, the Ashikaga clan’s family crest, and the same courtesy as the Shiba clan, the guardians of Owari, thereby strengthening their financial strength, which was their strength, and raising their family status, which was their weakness.

Having fulfilled his purpose, Nobunaga returned to Mino, entrusting the management of the shogunate to Yoshiaki and his shogunate retainers.

Through this plan to move to Kyoto, he succeeded in strengthening and improving the Oda family. In the end, this choice and judgment gave rise to a foothold in the central government, which led to the subsequent unification project.

If the Oda family had not supported the plan to move to Kyoto, the events that followed would have been very different and history would have been different. We do not know what became of the Oda family, which was able to survive as a small feudal lord until the end of the Edo period.

As a comparative example, I would like to take a quick look at Yoshikage Asakura, who was also approached by Yoshiaki with a plan to go to Kyoto.

Competitor Yoshikage Asakura’s selection and judgment

The Asakura family was the shugodai of Echizen Province and had a geographical advantage. It has diplomatic relations with the powers of Kyushu and Tohoku, and has long been related to surrounding powers.

Furthermore, it seems that they were economically wealthy. However, the presence of the Ikkoshu was a major cause for concern.

Although Yoshikage hides Yoshiaki, he ignores his request to go to Kyoto. Although they provided indirect support, they continued to avoid high-risk activities.

However, if it is for the defense of their own country, they will intervene militarily in neighboring countries. One theory is that he refused to go to Kyoto because he did not want to be away from his castle, Ichijodani Castle, for a long period of time.

Even after that, Yoshikage’s actions were thorough, and he did not respond to another request from Yoshiaki, who had become the new shogun. It is said that there were some uncertainties within the country, and they were afraid of the risks.

However, this attitude was seen as an act of rebellion against Yoshiaki, and they were attacked by the combined forces of the shogunate and the Oda clan. In the end, the Asakura family was destroyed by Nobunaga.

Comparing this way, we can see that how the opportunity of the Kyoto plan was handled made a big difference in the subsequent outcome.

By analyzing the decisions and choices of historical figures using a modern marketing framework, we can get a glimpse of how they thought.

There are many things we can learn from Nobunaga’s successes and Yoshikage’s failures, and I think this can be used as a reference not only in modern business but also in various environments.

Because we are in an era of VUCA, I think we can learn from the accomplishments of our predecessors who lived through times of turmoil.

By the way, Nobunaga has fallen into critical situations many times since then, and each time he uses every means possible to get out. I believe that the Honnoji Incident, which Nobunaga was unable to survive, is considered a mysterious incident.